Standard & Poor’s potential downgrade of U.S. debt had been signaled for a few weeks, so it did not come as a complete surprise. In fact, some smaller rating agencies had already downgraded the U.S. Nonetheless, the initial market reaction will likely be a high degree of uncertainty and volatility, since investors will likely not know where to turn for assets with lower short-term volatility. During the subprime crisis, investors largely sought such assets in U.S. Dollars and Treasuries. While during the subprime crisis the USD index was high, now it is low reflecting a changed perception of markets that may be considered less volatile in the short-term. In particular, we believe currencies and stocks of emerging countries may look relatively attractive given: (1) emerging markets generally have more foreign reserves than developed countries and (2) the debt-to-GDP levels of emerging countries tend to be lower than developed countries. This improved ability to manage their currencies and historically better ability to service debt is why we believe emerging market currencies have been so strong – and may continue to be.
Dr. Mark Mobius, executive chairman Templeton Emerging Markets Group
Datoria Statelor Unite si oportunitatile din pietele emergente (slide 2)
Am dorit sa scriu o scurta nota despre retrogradarea datoriei SUA si despre evenimentele din ultima saptamana, in urma numeroaselor intrebari din partea cititorilor. Potentiala retrogradare de catre Standard & Poor’s a datoriei SUA a fost semnalata de mai multe saptamani, astfel ca nu a fost o surpriza foarte mare. De fapt, unele agentii de rating mai mici, retrogradasera deja SUA. Chiar si asa, reactia initiala a pietelor se poate reflecta intr-un grad ridicat de incertitudine si volatilitate, intrucat este posibil ca investitorii sa nu stie incotro sa mearga pentru active cu o volatilitate mai mica pe termen scurt. In cazul crizei subprime, investitorii au cautat cu precadere asemenea active in dolarul american si titlurile Trezoreriei SUA.
In timpul crizei subprime indexul dolarului american era ridicat, acum insa este coborat reflectand o perceptie schimbata in ceea ce inseamna pietele care pot fi considerate mai putin volatile pe termen scurt. In particular, credem ca monedele si actiunile din tarile emergente pot fi relativ mai atractive tinand cont de faptul ca :
(1) pietele emergente au in general rezerve valutare mai ridicate decat tarile dezvoltate si
(2) nivelul de datorie publica raportat la PIB in tarile emergente tinde sa fie mai coborat decat cel al tarilor dezvoltate.
Aceasta abilitate superioara de a administra moneda si abilitatea istoric mai buna de a aborda nivelul datoriei sunt printre motivele pentru care credem ca monedele din pietele emergente au fost atat de puternice – si pot continua sa fie asa.
